The Swiss Federal Economic Office (SECO) Announces The Swiss Economic Outlook For 2018

- Apr 17, 2018-

According to the "Swiss 2018 Economic Outlook" announced by the Swiss Federal Economy Agency (SECO) on March 20 (2018), it is predicted that the prosperity of Switzerland in 2018 and 2019 will be further consolidated.

(i) Switzerland's (2017) gross domestic product (GDP) growth in real terms was 1%, forecasted to rise to 2.4% in 2018 and 2.0% in 2019.

(B) In 2018, investment and exports in Switzerland are all flourishing. Switzerland is linked to the international economic situation. As the United States and the Eurozone economy are expected to continue to recover in 2018, Switzerland, which relies heavily on exports, tourism and service industries, will also be able to With the trend of growth, it is estimated that exports will grow by 4.8% (4.1% in 2019); imports will increase by 3.9% (3.8% in 2019). The machinery, electronics, and metals industries that have experienced growth and recession due to the impact of the economy and the exchange rate over the past three years, and the hotel industry oriented by foreign tourists are expected to enjoy the benefits of economic growth in 2018. The chemical and pharmaceutical industry in Switzerland is still expected to be an important factor in stabilizing Swiss economic and export growth in 2018.

(III) The continuous revival of the international economic situation will drive investors' willingness to invest, and Switzerland hopes that as the economy picks up, manufacturers will increase investment in production equipment to promote economic growth, and at the same time improve the domestic market for domestic demand in Switzerland. In 2018, most of the domestic demand-oriented industries will develop steadily. The domestic demand for labor will also increase in Switzerland to create more job opportunities. In 2018, the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 2.9%. Although there is no possibility of substantial increase in Swiss domestic real salary in the short term, consumer confidence is increasing and domestic consumption is expected to grow. It is estimated that private consumption will increase by 1.4% in 2018 (1.5% in 2019); public sector consumption growth will be 0.7%. (Grow 0.6% in 2019).

(d) Investment in construction and plant in Switzerland is expected to stagnate at a high point in 2018. Although Switzerland still maintains low interest rates, the large number of commercial real estate projects completed in Switzerland has caused excess supply in the real estate market, and the empty room rate is expected to continue to Highly, the sales growth forecast for the local construction industry in Switzerland will be limited, and the metal and wood industry will face challenges due to the weakened growth momentum of the construction industry.

(V) The rate of increase in prices in Switzerland in 2017 is 0.5%. Since the prices of crude oil and imported goods are expected to continue to rise, the prices of Swiss goods are expected to rise moderately and slowly in 2018. The estimated price increase rate in 2018 is 0.6% (0.7% in 2019). .

(6) The international situation affecting the economic growth of Switzerland: The international economic and monetary situation has changed. European politics has become more stable and the economy has recovered. The euro has appreciated significantly against the Swiss franc. Under the conditions of the global economic recovery and the strong appreciation of the Swiss franc is expected to weaken under the two conditions, it will contribute to the economic development of Switzerland. However, in the future, the global economy must still be regarded as having an impact on whether the United States, China, and the European Union will impose high tariffs on imported steel and aluminum materials to expand and upgrade to a global trade war. In addition, changes in U.S. monetary policy may also affect the global economic development and may put the Swiss franc again under pressure for appreciation.

(VII) Other negative factors affecting Swiss economic growth: The overall Swiss economy is closely related to international relations. Due to the uncertain international political factors, such as the new government that has emerged from the recent Italian parliamentary elections, the end of British Brexit The form has not yet been confirmed, coupled with bilateral agreements between Switzerland and the EU are also hidden dangers are all uncertain international political factors affecting the growth of the Swiss economy.